WEEK IN REVIEW

Last week’s economic data offered a mixed view of the U.S. economy, beginning with a notable rebound in consumer sentiment. On Tuesday, consumer confidence rose sharply in May to 98 from 85.7 in April, reversing five months of declines. The improvement was driven by a significant increase in expectations for future income and business conditions. Current assessments of the economy also improved, though concerns about job availability remained.

On Thursday, the second estimate for first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) showed a slight contraction of 0.2% on an annualized basis. This marked a reversal from the previous quarter’s growth and was primarily due to increased imports and reduced government spending. However, consumer spending, business investment, and exports provided some support, indicating that domestic demand remains relatively stable despite external pressures.

Friday’s data added more context to the economic picture. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% in April, with the year-over-year rate easing to 2.1%. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, increased 0.1% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year. These figures suggest that inflation pressures are gradually moderating. Personal income rose 0.8%, and the savings rate edged up to 4.9%, indicating that households are maintaining a cautious but steady financial posture. Meanwhile, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed a slight decline, pointing to a mild contraction in manufacturing activity in the Midwest. However, resilience in the service sector helped offset some of the weakness.

ECONOMIC AND CAPITAL MARKETS DASHBOARD

WEEK AHEAD

The upcoming week will offer key insights into the health of the U.S. economy, with a focus on business activity and the labor market.

On Monday, the week begins with the release of the Manufacturing PMI. This index has recently hovered near contraction territory, reflecting ongoing challenges in the industrial sector, including weak demand and cautious inventory management. A continued soft reading could reinforce concerns about sluggish factory activity.

Wednesday will bring the Services PMI, which has remained more resilient than manufacturing in recent months. The services sector has been buoyed by steady consumer demand, though recent reports have hinted at a potential slowdown in new orders and hiring.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report will provide a snapshot of job openings in April. While openings have gradually declined from their post-pandemic highs, they remain elevated by historical standards. This data will be closely watched for signs of cooling in labor demand, particularly in sectors like retail and hospitality.

The most anticipated release comes Friday, with the May nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate. Job growth has moderated in recent months, suggesting a more balanced labor market. The unemployment rate has remained low, but any uptick could signal emerging slack. Wage growth will also be scrutinized for inflationary pressures.

Disclosures and Definitions

Economic Indicators:

1. CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2. Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3. PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4. Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
5. PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
6. Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
7. Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
8. Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
9. Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
10. Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
11. Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
12. ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
13. ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
14. Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
15. Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
16. Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
17. New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
18. SA: Seasonally adjusted.
19. SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

1. S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
2. Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
3. NASDAQ: The world’s first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
4. Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
5. Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
6. Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
7. Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
8. MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
9. MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
10. VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
11. FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
12. S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
13. 3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
14. 10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
15. 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
16. WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
17. Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
18. Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

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